其他设备互联网流量激增，预示传统PC将遭遗弃？
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如果你有了智能手机、iPad（或其它品牌的平板电脑）和一台可以上网的电视，你还真的需要PC吗？现在，答案可能是“是”。但是，至少在消费市场，PC面临被遗弃的危险。
这是我从思科6月1日公布的第五个年度《可视化网络指数预测》（Visual Networking Index Forecast）中的数据得出的结论。该报告根据分析师预测、思科自己的估计与预测以及直接的数据收集，试图预测未来趋势。
主要发现是：互联网流量继续急剧增长，而且越来越多的流量正在使用PC以外的设备。如果预测比较接近真实情况，这预示建设互联网基础设施和生产消费电子产品的企业将继续保持繁荣，尤其是生产移动设备的厂商，同时暗示PC厂商最好使业务多样化，而且要尽快这么做。
根据上述预测，到2015年的时候：
- 全球互联网总体流量将达到目前的4倍，达到每年966exabytes，接近1个zettabyte。
- 网络互联设备的数量将会超过150亿台，相当于全世界人口数量的两倍。世界上每个人会有两台互联设备，多于去年的一台。
- 全球互联网用户将接近30亿个，占到世界预计人口的40%以上。
- 平均固定宽带速度预计会提升至目前的4倍，2015年将从2010年的7 Mbit/s上升到28 Mbit/s。
- 每秒将有100万分钟视频通过互联网传输，相当于674天。
- 平均全球IP流量将达到每秒245TB，相当于每天有2亿人同时传送一部高清电影。
- 全球移动互联网数据流量将会增加到2010年的26倍，达到每月6.3 exabytes。
报告指出的两个最重要趋势显示，新型设备正在超越PC。看看这些数字，就能明白为什么PC厂商拼命想在平板电脑市场打开局面。
首先，越来越多的互联网流量来自PC以外的设备。去年，只有3%的消费互联网流量来自PC以外的设备，而到2015年这一数字将上升到13%。PC创造的流量将以33%的复合年度增长率增长，而电视、平板电脑、智能手机和机器对机器（M2M）的流量增长速度将分别高达101%、216%、144%和258%。
如果看看网络视频，脱离PC的趋势更加明显。2010年底，92%的互联网视频流量来自PC。到2015年，该比例预计将下降到79%，20%以上的互联网视频流量将来自非PC设备。到2015年，电视将占逾10%的互联网视频流量，突显互联网电视的强劲增长。
其次，各种设备的便携性和无线连接功能日益增强。去年，有线设备仍在IP流量中占多数，约为63%。但到2015年，来自无线设备的流量预计将超过有线设备，WiFi和移动设备将占到54%，而有线将仅占46%。
随着互联网上的设备数量与类型继续快速增长，传统PC越来越像即将灭绝的恐龙。你认为它能幸存吗？传统PC厂商如何才能避免走向灭绝？
附英文原文：
As Internet Traffic Grows， PCs Risk Being Left Behind
Tam Harbert
When you have a smartphone， an iPad （or another brand of tablet）， and an Internet-connected TV， will you really need a PC？ Today， the answer is probably yes. But， at least in the consumer market， the PC is in danger of being left behind.
That‘s what I got out of the data Cisco Systems Inc. （Nasdaq： CSCO） published on June 1 in its fifth annual Visual Networking Index Forecast， an attempt to predict trends based on a combination of analyst projections， Cisco’s own estimates and forecasts， and direct data collection.
The main finding： The amount of Internet traffic continues to explode， and that traffic is increasingly using vehicles other than the PC. If the forecast is even close to accurate， it spells continued prosperity for companies that build the Internet infrastructure and consumer electronics， particularly mobile devices， while indicating that PC manufacturers had better diversify， and fast.
By 2015， according to the forecast：
● Total global Internet traffic will quadruple， reaching 966 exabytes， almost one zettabyte， per year.
● The number of network-connected devices will be more than 15 billion， twice the world‘s population. There will be two networked devices per capita， up from one per capita last year.
● Internet users will number nearly 3 billion， more than 40 percent of the world’s projected population.
● Average fixed broadband speed is expected to increase fourfold， from 7 megabits per second in 2010 to 28 Mbit/s in 2015.
● One million video minutes -- the equivalent of 674 days -- will traverse the Internet every second.
● Average global IP traffic will reach 245 terabytes per second， equivalent to 200 million people streaming an HD movie simultaneously every day.
● Global mobile Internet data traffic will increase 26 times from 2010 levels to 6.3 exabytes per month.
Two of the most important trends noted in the report show how new devices are gaining on the PC. Read these numbers and you understand why PC manufacturers are desperately trying to gain traction in the tablet market.
First， more and more Internet traffic is coming from devices other than PCs. Last year， only 3 percent of consumer Internet traffic originated from non-PC devices， but by 2015 the non-PC share of consumer Internet traffic will grow to 13 percent. PC-originated traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 33 percent， while TVs， tablets， smartphones， and machine-to-machine （M2M） modules will have traffic growth rates of 101 percent， 216 percent， 144 percent， and 258 percent， respectively.
If you look at video on the Internet， the swing away from PCs is even stronger. At the end of 2010， 92 percent of Internet video traffic originated from PCs. By 2015， that is expected to drop to 79 percent， with more than one-fifth of Internet video traffic coming from non-PC devices. By 2015， TVs will account for over 18 percent of Internet video traffic， demonstrating the growth in the adoption of Web-enabled TVs.
Second， the device mix is becoming increasingly portable and wireless. Last year， wired devices still accounted for most of the IP traffic -- some 63 percent. But by 2015， traffic from wireless devices is expected to exceed wired， with WiFi and mobile devices accounting for 54 percent versus only 46 percent for wired.
As the number and types of devices on the Internet continue to mushroom， the traditional PC is looking more and more like a dinosaur. Do you think it will survive？ What should the traditional PC makers do to avoid extinction？
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