2009年晶圆厂资本支出减少56% 回暖信号已现

根据SEMI World Fab Forecast的最新预测，晶圆厂建设支出自2008年来持续呈现季度负增长，2009年预计同比减少56%。从全球来看，建设支出达到10年来最低点。然而，该报告的最新数据显示，2009年下半年晶圆厂建设支出和设备支出将恢复增长，并将持续至2010年。2010年，晶圆厂建设支出预计成倍增长，设备支出也可能增长多达90%。

实际上美国资本投入正在增长，季度支出额正在朝10亿美元迈进，主要因为Intel宣布了投资计划，准备转入32nm制程。

根据报告，2008年关闭19家晶圆厂，2009年将关闭35家，2010年预计关闭14家。2009年预计将新开9家晶圆厂。从整体趋势来看，新开产能增长自1995年就开始放缓，多数新晶圆厂是300mm超级大型存储器厂，这意味着晶圆厂的数量不需要更多，但需要更大。

2009年全球装载产能预计减少3%，主要由于晶圆厂关闭，然而数据显示2010年装载产能可能增长6%。存储器和逻辑电路工厂预计2009年将受到最为严重的影响，预计装载产能将分别减少5%-7%。

SEMI World Fab Forecast Reveals Signs of Increased Investment

2009 Spending on Fabs Construction Projects Expected to Decline by 56%

SAN JOSE, Calif. ? June 9, 2009 ? According to the latest update of the SEMI World Fab Forecast database, spending on fab construction projects has seen a consistent quarterly decline since 2008, and on a year-over-year basis is expected to fall by 56 percent in 2009. On a global scale, construction spending is at its lowest level in 10 years.?? However, the latest data from the report suggest an increase in investments for both fab construction projects and fab equipping in the second half of 2009, with the trend continuing into 2010.? In 2010, investments in fab construction projects are expected to almost double and spending on equipping fabs may increase by as much as 90 percent year-over-year from the significant declines expected in 2009, according to the report.

Investments are actually increasing in the Americas, with a total quarterly spending increasing to almost US$1 billion, mainly due to major investments announced by Intel, as the company moves forward on a planned upgrade to 32nm.

According to the report, 19 fab facilities closed in 2008, and about 35 facilities will close in 2009, though the number of closures should decline in 2010 as only 14 facilities are expected to close.? Nine fabs are expected to launch operations in 2009.? Overall the trend of new facilities commencing operations has slowed since 1995, due to the fact that most new fabs are 300mm Megafabs for memory production, meaning fewer but larger fabs are needed.

Worldwide installed capacity for 2009 is expected to decline by about three percent, mainly due to fab closures, however data from the World Fab Forecast show that installed capacity for 2010 could increase by about six percent.? Memory and logic fabs are expected to take the biggest hit in 2009, with a decline in installed capacity of five to seven percent each due to fab closures.

For more information about SEMI market statistics products including the SEMI World Fab Forecast, please visit www.semi.org/store.

The SEMI World Fab Forecast tracks money spent on Front End semiconductor facilities that are equipping, which includes volume fabs, R&Ds and Pilot fabs, fab construction projects, investments for capacity, and investments for technology and product upgrades.

SEMI is the global industry association serving the manufacturing supply chains for the microelectronic, display and photovoltaic industries.? SEMI member companies are the engine of the future, enabling smarter, faster and more economical products that improve our lives.? Since 1970, SEMI has been committed to helping members grow more profitably, create new markets and meet common industry challenges.? SEMI maintains offices in Austin, Bangalore, Beijing, Brussels, Hsinchu, Moscow, San Jose, Seoul, Shanghai, Singapore, Tokyo, and Washington, D.C.? For more information, visit www.semi.org.